Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

554.58 – 508.67

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

601 – 630

Prediction missed · off by 83.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 959.7 ±9.8

9483Overcharge

Season APEX 377.8Event APEX 165.48Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

117Steel Dragons

Season APEX 270.4Event APEX 263.43Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

955Ctrl C

A+

Season APEX 311.5Event APEX 125.67Rank 19Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 750.7 ±7.1

1002CircuitRunners Robotics

Season APEX 265.3Event APEX 192.32Rank 37Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 170.13Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 146.22Rank 22Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9483, 117, 955

/ 100 compat

Projected

554.6 pts

~2.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 9483, 117, 955

Auto

110.9 20%

Teleop

328.2 59%

Endgame

115.0 21%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1002, 190, 118

/ 100 compat

Projected

508.7 pts

~1.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 1002, 190, 118

Auto

99.1 20%

Teleop

286.2 56%

Endgame

121.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 23%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.12 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score554.6pts

Blue projected score508.7pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 23%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 45.9
Score range: 437–627
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1231 vs event baseline 399.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

959.7Season APEX750.7

110.9Auto99.1

328.2Teleop286.2

115Endgame121.5

120Consistency116

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	100	120
teleop	311	326
endgame	155	179
foul	35	5
total	601	630

Result

Final score

601 – 630

Prediction missed · off by 83.9 pts

Match videos

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