Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
658.33 – 596.09
68%32%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
489 – 756
Prediction missed · off by 164.6 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 874.1 ±9.3
Season APEX 337.3Event APEX 312.16Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 310.1Event APEX 254.07Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 226.7Event APEX 92.1Rank 74Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 897.3 ±8.7
Season APEX 312.8Event APEX 209.48Rank 12Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 216.61Rank 9Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 299.7Event APEX 170Rank 32Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 7558, 4522, 6766
92
/ 100 compatProjected
658.3 pts
~2.0 RP (championship)
Teams: 7558, 4522, 6766
Auto
162.8 26%
Teleop
326.0 51%
Endgame
148.6 23%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 46%
Supercharged: 19%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5026, 4391, 10340
87
/ 100 compatProjected
596.1 pts
~1.4 RP (championship)
Teams: 5026, 4391, 10340
Auto
116.4 20%
Teleop
320.8 55%
Endgame
142.3 25%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 46%
Supercharged: 19%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.03 · Blue 1.4
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setChampionship
Red projected score658.3pts
Blue projected score596.1pts
Red win probability68%
Event bonus sample280alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 46%, blue 51%
Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 24%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 62.2
- Score range
- 524–730
- Upset likelihood
- 32%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
874.1Season APEX897.3
162.8Auto116.4
326Teleop320.8
148.6Endgame142.3
157Consistency90
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 74 | 167 |
| teleop | 241 | 462 |
| endgame | 164 | 127 |
| foul | 10 | 0 |
| total | 489 | 756 |
Result
Final score
489 – 756
Prediction missed · off by 164.6 pts
Match videos
Watch right here, no need to leave the page.