Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

559.27 – 583.44

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

500 – 601

Prediction correct · off by 38.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 750.7 ±7.1

1002CircuitRunners Robotics

Season APEX 265.3Event APEX 209.45Rank 37Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 186.71Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 163.11Rank 22Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 780.8 ±8.7

9072TigerBots

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 201.05Rank 34Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7220Steel Falcons

Season APEX 253.6Event APEX 167.78Rank 15Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

836The RoboBees

Season APEX 272.5Event APEX 214.61Rank 8Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1002, 190, 118

/ 100 compat

Projected

559.3 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 1002, 190, 118

Auto

108.2 19%

Teleop

307.9 55%

Endgame

141.0 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 9072, 7220, 836

/ 100 compat

Projected

583.4 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 9072, 7220, 836

Auto

109.2 19%

Teleop

311.5 55%

Endgame

149.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 20%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score559.3pts

Blue projected score583.4pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -24.2
Score range: 485–657
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1101 vs event baseline 412.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

750.7Season APEX780.8

108.2Auto109.2

307.9Teleop311.5

141Endgame149

116Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	97	86
teleop	301	327
endgame	77	158
foul	25	30
total	500	601

Result

Final score

500 – 601

Prediction correct · off by 38.4 pts

Match videos

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