Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

533.88 – 563.96

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

673 – 701

Prediction correct · off by 138.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 792.8 ±9.8

179Children of the Swamp

Season APEX 230Event APEX 165.44Rank 41Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 157.09Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

498The Cobra Commanders

A+

Season APEX 318.2Event APEX 211.35Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 780.8 ±8.7

9072TigerBots

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 194Rank 34Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7220Steel Falcons

Season APEX 253.6Event APEX 161.25Rank 15Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

836The RoboBees

Season APEX 272.5Event APEX 208.71Rank 8Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 179, 1792, 498

/ 100 compat

Projected

533.9 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 179, 1792, 498

Auto

145.0 28%

Teleop

275.5 53%

Endgame

99.3 19%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9072, 7220, 836

/ 100 compat

Projected

564 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 9072, 7220, 836

Auto

116.2 21%

Teleop

300.7 55%

Endgame

131.8 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score533.9pts

Blue projected score564pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30.1
Score range: 460–638
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1374 vs event baseline 410.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

792.8Season APEX780.8

145Auto116.2

275.5Teleop300.7

99.3Endgame131.8

107Consistency91

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	159	69
teleop	293	375
endgame	181	252
foul	40	5
total	673	701

Result

Final score

673 – 701

Prediction correct · off by 138.1 pts

Match videos

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