Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
558.95 – 510.41
65%35%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
570 – 674
Prediction missed · off by 87.3 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 750.7 ±7.1
Season APEX 265.3Event APEX 208.33Rank 37Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 186.7Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 163.92Rank 22Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 839.6 ±8.7
Season APEX 268.7Event APEX 170.52Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 178.24Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 247.3Event APEX 161.65Rank 10Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 1002, 190, 118
82
/ 100 compatProjected
558.9 pts
~2.0 RP (championship)
Teams: 1002, 190, 118
Auto
107.5 19%
Teleop
310.8 56%
Endgame
138.9 25%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 51%
Supercharged: 20%
Traversal: 3%
Blue · 6324, 4946, 2337
78
/ 100 compatProjected
510.4 pts
~1.4 RP (championship)
Teams: 6324, 4946, 2337
Auto
97.6 19%
Teleop
278.2 55%
Endgame
129.6 26%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 51%
Supercharged: 20%
Traversal: 3%
Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.03 · Blue 1.44
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setChampionship
Red projected score558.9pts
Blue projected score510.4pts
Red win probability65%
Event bonus sample280alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 51%, blue 49%
Supercharged bonusred 20%, blue 23%
Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%
- Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 48.5
- Score range
- 436–633
- Upset likelihood
- 35%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
750.7Season APEX839.6
107.5Auto97.6
310.8Teleop278.2
138.9Endgame129.6
111Consistency126
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 112 | 155 |
| teleop | 296 | 380 |
| endgame | 157 | 134 |
| foul | 5 | 5 |
| total | 570 | 674 |
Result
Final score
570 – 674
Prediction missed · off by 87.3 pts
Match videos
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