Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

524.81 – 593.37

30%70%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

585 – 579

Prediction missed · off by 37.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 792.8 ±9.8

179Children of the Swamp

Season APEX 230Event APEX 161.52Rank 41Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 154.73Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

498The Cobra Commanders

A+

Season APEX 318.2Event APEX 208.56Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 959.7 ±9.8

9483Overcharge

Season APEX 377.8Event APEX 185.32Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

117Steel Dragons

Season APEX 270.4Event APEX 271.05Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

955Ctrl C

A+

Season APEX 311.5Event APEX 137Rank 19Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 179, 1792, 498

/ 100 compat

Projected

524.8 pts

~1.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 179, 1792, 498

Auto

140.6 28%

Teleop

277.8 55%

Endgame

90.4 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9483, 117, 955

/ 100 compat

Projected

593.4 pts

~2.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 9483, 117, 955

Auto

115.4 20%

Teleop

327.0 56%

Endgame

140.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 28%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.39 · Blue 2.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score524.8pts

Blue projected score593.4pts

Red win probability30%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 28%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -68.6
Score range: 452–666
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 1164 vs event baseline 407.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

792.8Season APEX959.7

140.6Auto115.4

277.8Teleop327

90.4Endgame140.7

105Consistency114

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	169	146
teleop	265	193
endgame	146	215
foul	5	25
total	585	579

Result

Final score

585 – 579

Prediction missed · off by 37.3 pts

Match videos

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