Qualification · Qualification 95

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

380.91 – 227.03

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

394 – 156

Prediction correct · off by 42.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 607.6 ±9.9

9484Robot's District

Season APEX 158Event APEX 101.68Rank 55Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1076PiHi Samurai

Season APEX 201Event APEX 112.73Rank 45Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3620Average Joes

Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 166.5Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 493.5 ±9.9

245Adambots

Season APEX 181.6Event APEX 97.51Rank 67Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11269Batteries Not Included

Season APEX 125.7Event APEX 41.39Rank 63Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3770BlitzCreek

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 88.13Rank 57Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9484, 1076, 3620

/ 100 compat

Projected

380.9 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 9484, 1076, 3620

Auto

78.1 21%

Teleop

196.8 53%

Endgame

96.5 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 245, 11269, 3770

/ 100 compat

Projected

227 pts

~0.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 245, 11269, 3770

Auto

65.7 29%

Teleop

136.9 61%

Endgame

21.6 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 64%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.49 · Blue 0.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score380.9pts

Blue projected score227pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 64%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 153.9
Score range: 155–453
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 550 vs event baseline 401.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

607.6Season APEX493.5

78.1Auto65.7

196.8Teleop136.9

96.5Endgame21.6

151Consistency144

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	48
teleop	225	44
endgame	120	54
foul	5	10
total	394	156

Result

Final score

394 – 156

Prediction correct · off by 42.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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