Qualification · Qualification 93

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

446.2 – 358.77

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

582 – 256

Prediction correct · off by 119.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 789.4 ±8.7

3536Electro Eagles

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 150.22Rank 25Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5026Iron Panthers

A+

Season APEX 312.8Event APEX 213.75Rank 12Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4635PrepaTec - Botbusters

Season APEX 262Event APEX 82.23Rank 28Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 637.9 ±12.2

9646The Marinators

Season APEX 232.4Event APEX 85.66Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9277Sparkans

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 113.25Rank 70Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

179Children of the Swamp

Season APEX 230Event APEX 159.86Rank 41Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3536, 5026, 4635

/ 100 compat

Projected

446.2 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 3536, 5026, 4635

Auto

96.5 22%

Teleop

264.0 60%

Endgame

79.0 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9646, 9277, 179

/ 100 compat

Projected

358.8 pts

~1.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 9646, 9277, 179

Auto

28.6 8%

Teleop

187.7 55%

Endgame

124.4 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.35 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score446.2pts

Blue projected score358.8pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 87.4
Score range: 287–518
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 838 vs event baseline 400.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

789.4Season APEX637.9

96.5Auto28.6

264Teleop187.7

79Endgame124.4

155Consistency123

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	101	42
teleop	316	96
endgame	150	103
foul	15	15
total	582	256

Result

Final score

582 – 256

Prediction correct · off by 119.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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