Qualification · Qualification 91

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

230.23 – 598.66

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

304 – 755

Prediction correct · off by 115.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 661.1 ±12.4

2638Rebel Robotics

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 116.13Rank 59Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7403Lightning Blue Lizards

Season APEX 220Event APEX 42.54Rank 65Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 91

6766AtomStorm

Season APEX 226.7Event APEX 71.56Rank 74Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 976.7 ±9.8

9483Overcharge

Season APEX 377.8Event APEX 218.65Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

498The Cobra Commanders

A+

Season APEX 318.2Event APEX 163.28Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

67The HOT Team

Season APEX 280.7Event APEX 216.73Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2638, 7403, 6766

/ 100 compat

Projected

230.2 pts

~0.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 2638, 7403, 6766

Auto

45.2 20%

Teleop

105.4 47%

Endgame

72.7 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9483, 498, 67

/ 100 compat

Projected

598.7 pts

~2.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 9483, 498, 67

Auto

141.9 23%

Teleop

353.7 59%

Endgame

108.9 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.42 · Blue 2.9

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score230.2pts

Blue projected score598.7pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -368.4
Score range: 158–671
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1059 vs event baseline 399.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

661.1Season APEX976.7

45.2Auto141.9

105.4Teleop353.7

72.7Endgame108.9

155Consistency102

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	111	162
teleop	123	450
endgame	35	138
foul	35	5
total	304	755

Result

Final score

304 – 755

Prediction correct · off by 115.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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