Qualification · Qualification 90

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

523.04 – 300.53

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

711 – 235

Prediction correct · off by 126.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 874.2 ±8.7

10340ITKAN Girls

A+

Season APEX 299.7Event APEX 170.54Rank 32Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 165.67Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 186.83Rank 27Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 653.2 ±11.2

9597Luban Robotics

A+

Season APEX 324.6Event APEX 178.23Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

10396Mostra

Season APEX 127.8Event APEX 20.96Rank 75Record 0-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

619Cavalier Robotics

Season APEX 200.8Event APEX 101.34Rank 60Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10340, 4946, 2877

/ 100 compat

Projected

523 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 10340, 4946, 2877

Auto

123.6 24%

Teleop

270.8 53%

Endgame

119.8 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9597, 10396, 619

/ 100 compat

Projected

300.5 pts

~0.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 9597, 10396, 619

Auto

68.0 23%

Teleop

149.1 51%

Endgame

77.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 19%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.53 · Blue 0.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score523pts

Blue projected score300.5pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 19%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 222.5
Score range: 229–595
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 946 vs event baseline 398.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

874.2Season APEX653.2

123.6Auto68

270.8Teleop149.1

119.8Endgame77.3

125Consistency181

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	149	71
teleop	399	130
endgame	148	34
foul	15	0
total	711	235

Result

Final score

711 – 235

Prediction correct · off by 126.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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