Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

190.78 – 190.78

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

506 – 514

Prediction missed · off by 319.2 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 704.8 ±10.5

9277Sparkans

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX -Rank 70Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7558ALT-F4

Season APEX 337.3Event APEX -Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2040DERT - Dunlap Eagles Robotics Team

Season APEX 192Event APEX -Rank 36Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 761.2 ±7.7

67The HOT Team

Season APEX 280.7Event APEX -Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX -Rank 22Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX -Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9277, 7558, 2040

/ 100 compat

Projected

190.8 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 9277, 7558, 2040

Auto

57.2 30%

Teleop

95.4 50%

Endgame

38.2 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 67, 118, 1792

/ 100 compat

Projected

190.8 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 67, 118, 1792

Auto

57.2 30%

Teleop

95.4 50%

Endgame

38.2 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score190.8pts

Blue projected score190.8pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 27%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0
Score range: 122–260
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 1020 vs event baseline 381.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

704.8Season APEX761.2

-Auto-

-Teleop-

-Endgame-

-Consistency-

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	101
teleop	284	272
endgame	151	141
foul	20	0
total	506	514

Result

Final score

506 – 514

Prediction missed · off by 319.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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