Qualification · Qualification 87

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

446.78 – 470.37

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

408 – 389

Prediction missed · off by 60.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 695.1 ±8.1

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 154.47Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1076PiHi Samurai

Season APEX 201Event APEX 122.02Rank 45Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 170.29Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 696.2 ±9.9

1073The Force Team

Season APEX 253.4Event APEX 145.82Rank 35Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9484Robot's District

Season APEX 158Event APEX 117.42Rank 55Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4391BraveBots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 207.13Rank 9Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1792, 1076, 190

/ 100 compat

Projected

446.8 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 1792, 1076, 190

Auto

99.4 22%

Teleop

233.6 51%

Endgame

124.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1073, 9484, 4391

/ 100 compat

Projected

470.4 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 1073, 9484, 4391

Auto

100.9 22%

Teleop

230.9 51%

Endgame

123.7 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score446.8pts

Blue projected score470.4pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23.6
Score range: 376–541
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 797 vs event baseline 396.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

695.1Season APEX696.2

99.4Auto100.9

233.6Teleop230.9

124.1Endgame123.7

202Consistency140

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	99	46
teleop	210	189
endgame	94	149
foul	5	5
total	408	389

Result

Final score

408 – 389

Prediction missed · off by 60.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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