Qualification · Qualification 86

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

349.8 – 544.06

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

301 – 558

Prediction correct · off by 31.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 634.6 ±8.7

2848Rangers

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 112.2Rank 43Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3603Cyber Coyotes

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 105.32Rank 51Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 132.28Rank 39Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 765.1 ±9.3

6324The Blue Devils

Season APEX 268.7Event APEX 192.49Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4522Team SCREAM

A+

Season APEX 310.1Event APEX 249.66Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7563SESI SENAI MEGAZORD

Season APEX 186.3Event APEX 101.91Rank 44Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2848, 3603, 422

/ 100 compat

Projected

349.8 pts

~0.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 2848, 3603, 422

Auto

55.0 16%

Teleop

181.6 53%

Endgame

108.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6324, 4522, 7563

/ 100 compat

Projected

544.1 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 6324, 4522, 7563

Auto

97.6 18%

Teleop

267.0 50%

Endgame

164.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.76 · Blue 2.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score349.8pts

Blue projected score544.1pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -194.3
Score range: 279–615
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 859 vs event baseline 396.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

634.6Season APEX765.1

55Auto97.6

181.6Teleop267

108.7Endgame164.6

120Consistency134

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	124
teleop	143	275
endgame	83	159
foul	15	0
total	301	558

Result

Final score

301 – 558

Prediction correct · off by 31.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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