Qualification · Qualification 85

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

402.84 – 323.87

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

304 – 387

Prediction missed · off by 81 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 635.3 ±8.7

1908ShoreBots

Season APEX 230.9Event APEX 139.76Rank 48Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4967That ONE Team-OurNextEngineers

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 113.48Rank 52Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7220Steel Falcons

Season APEX 253.6Event APEX 149.6Rank 15Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 681.6 ±11.2

2040DERT - Dunlap Eagles Robotics Team

Season APEX 192Event APEX 107.34Rank 36Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1306BadgerBOTS

Season APEX 257.2Event APEX 135.05Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9646The Marinators

Season APEX 232.4Event APEX 81.48Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1908, 4967, 7220

/ 100 compat

Projected

402.8 pts

~2.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 1908, 4967, 7220

Auto

88.7 22%

Teleop

199.0 49%

Endgame

122.6 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2040, 1306, 9646

/ 100 compat

Projected

323.9 pts

~1.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 2040, 1306, 9646

Auto

17.9 5%

Teleop

191.9 59%

Endgame

117.6 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.07 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score402.8pts

Blue projected score323.9pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 79
Score range: 253–474
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 691 vs event baseline 397.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

635.3Season APEX681.6

88.7Auto17.9

199Teleop191.9

122.6Endgame117.6

131Consistency113

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	15
teleop	186	226
endgame	72	116
foul	0	30
total	304	387

Result

Final score

304 – 387

Prediction missed · off by 81 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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