Qualification · Qualification 84

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

437.89 – 168.84

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

349 – 305

Prediction correct · off by 112.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 704.2 ±9.3

3620Average Joes

Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 173.41Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

179Children of the Swamp

Season APEX 230Event APEX 173.56Rank 41Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 90.92Rank 42Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 664.1 ±11.2

7551Extreme Mechanism

Season APEX 179Event APEX -26.31Rank 72Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

7257Semiconductors

Season APEX 179.4Event APEX 81.49Rank 54Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8Paly Robotics

A+

Season APEX 305.7Event APEX 113.66Rank 23Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3620, 179, 10014

/ 100 compat

Projected

437.9 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 3620, 179, 10014

Auto

81.1 19%

Teleop

222.0 52%

Endgame

124.2 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7551, 7257, 8

/ 100 compat

Projected

168.8 pts

~0.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 7551, 7257, 8

Auto

58.0 36%

Teleop

58.0 36%

Endgame

43.3 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 22%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.69 · Blue 0.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score437.9pts

Blue projected score168.8pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 22%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 269
Score range: 97–510
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 654 vs event baseline 397.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

704.2Season APEX664.1

81.1Auto58

222Teleop58

124.2Endgame43.3

87Consistency108

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	68
teleop	139	169
endgame	121	48
foul	35	20
total	349	305

Result

Final score

349 – 305

Prediction correct · off by 112.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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