Qualification · Qualification 82

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

99.18 – 223.24

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

169 – 332

Prediction correct · off by 89.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 670.5 ±15.8

4635PrepaTec - Botbusters

Season APEX 262Event APEX 82.54Rank 28Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2096RoboActive

Provisional

Season APEX 188.5Event APEX -11.67Rank 61Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

7403Lightning Blue Lizards

Season APEX 220Event APEX 28.31Rank 65Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 91

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 639.3 ±8.7

772Sabre Bytes Robotics

Season APEX 124.3Event APEX -36.8Rank 71Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2619The Charge

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 108.86Rank 40Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10340ITKAN Girls

A+

Season APEX 299.7Event APEX 151.18Rank 32Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4635, 2096, 7403

/ 100 compat

Projected

99.2 pts

~0.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 4635, 2096, 7403

Auto

34.5 35%

Teleop

45.5 47%

Endgame

17.5 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 772, 2619, 10340

/ 100 compat

Projected

223.2 pts

~2.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 772, 2619, 10340

Auto

53.6 24%

Teleop

114.1 52%

Endgame

53.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.89 · Blue 2.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score99.2pts

Blue projected score223.2pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -124.1
Score range: 27–295
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 501 vs event baseline 399.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

670.5Season APEX639.3

34.5Auto53.6

45.5Teleop114.1

17.5Endgame53.2

134Consistency113

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	107
teleop	63	158
endgame	38	67
foul	0	0
total	169	332

Result

Final score

169 – 332

Prediction correct · off by 89.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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