Qualification · Qualification 81

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

495.92 – 267.31

95%5%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

490 – 438

Prediction correct · off by 88.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 754.3 ±8.7

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 188.87Rank 27Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8612Calvin Christian Robotics

Season APEX 237.6Event APEX 197.12Rank 20Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2522Royal Robotics

Season APEX 265.8Event APEX 109.93Rank 24Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 588.1 ±8.4

10114Phantom Talons

Season APEX 131.5Event APEX -6.55Rank 68Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4451ROBOTZ Garage

Season APEX 220.7Event APEX 112.67Rank 26Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 161.19Rank 22Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2877, 8612, 2522

/ 100 compat

Projected

495.9 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 2877, 8612, 2522

Auto

114.6 24%

Teleop

254.0 52%

Endgame

118.4 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10114, 4451, 118

/ 100 compat

Projected

267.3 pts

~0.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 10114, 4451, 118

Auto

51.0 19%

Teleop

151.0 56%

Endgame

67.8 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.62 · Blue 0.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score495.9pts

Blue projected score267.3pts

Red win probability95%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 228.6
Score range: 195–568
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 928 vs event baseline 398.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

754.3Season APEX588.1

114.6Auto51

254Teleop151

118.4Endgame67.8

156Consistency181

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	114	88
teleop	198	216
endgame	153	119
foul	25	15
total	490	438

Result

Final score

490 – 438

Prediction correct · off by 88.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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