Qualification · Qualification 75

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

450.46 – 575.35

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

454 – 635

Prediction correct · off by 31.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 830.8 ±11.2

9483Overcharge

Season APEX 377.8Event APEX 221.74Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9646The Marinators

Season APEX 232.4Event APEX 73.98Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 154.74Rank 50Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 808.2 ±8.1

4522Team SCREAM

A+

Season APEX 310.1Event APEX 257.14Rank 1Record 10-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 156.29Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3620Average Joes

Season APEX 248.6Event APEX 161.92Rank 17Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9483, 9646, 48

/ 100 compat

Projected

450.5 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 9483, 9646, 48

Auto

78.6 18%

Teleop

275.9 62%

Endgame

88.9 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4522, 190, 3620

/ 100 compat

Projected

575.3 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 4522, 190, 3620

Auto

141.5 25%

Teleop

305.6 53%

Endgame

125.6 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.08 · Blue 2.67

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score450.5pts

Blue projected score575.3pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 67%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 33%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -124.9
Score range: 379–646
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 1089 vs event baseline 392.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

830.8Season APEX808.2

78.6Auto141.5

275.9Teleop305.6

88.9Endgame125.6

124Consistency108

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	141
teleop	236	307
endgame	126	177
foul	25	10
total	454	635

Result

Final score

454 – 635

Prediction correct · off by 31.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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