Qualification · Qualification 74

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

276.95 – 393.32

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

197 – 455

Prediction correct · off by 70.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 559.9 ±12.4

7403Lightning Blue Lizards

Season APEX 220Event APEX 47.1Rank 65Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 91

7563SESI SENAI MEGAZORD

Season APEX 186.3Event APEX 119.08Rank 44Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3630Stampede

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 110.77Rank 29Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 781.2 ±8.7

1792Round Table Robotics

Season APEX 244.6Event APEX 153.06Rank 2Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8Paly Robotics

A+

Season APEX 305.7Event APEX 102.95Rank 23Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1908ShoreBots

Season APEX 230.9Event APEX 137.31Rank 48Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7403, 7563, 3630

/ 100 compat

Projected

277 pts

~1.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 7403, 7563, 3630

Auto

42.6 17%

Teleop

129.3 51%

Endgame

81.7 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1792, 8, 1908

/ 100 compat

Projected

393.3 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 1792, 8, 1908

Auto

89.4 23%

Teleop

201.5 53%

Endgame

92.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.98 · Blue 2.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score277pts

Blue projected score393.3pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 21%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -116.4
Score range: 206–464
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 652 vs event baseline 393.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

559.9Season APEX781.2

42.6Auto89.4

129.3Teleop201.5

81.7Endgame92.5

142Consistency144

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	107
teleop	83	235
endgame	73	113
foul	20	0
total	197	455

Result

Final score

197 – 455

Prediction correct · off by 70.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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