Qualification · Qualification 73

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

268.55 – 432.68

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

406 – 352

Prediction missed · off by 109.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 614.8 ±9.3

10114Phantom Talons

Season APEX 131.5Event APEX -35.29Rank 68Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3536Electro Eagles

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 122.76Rank 25Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6324The Blue Devils

Season APEX 268.7Event APEX 181.08Rank 3Record 9-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 649.7 ±10.5

2040DERT - Dunlap Eagles Robotics Team

Season APEX 192Event APEX 126.26Rank 36Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10340ITKAN Girls

A+

Season APEX 299.7Event APEX 174.78Rank 32Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9484Robot's District

Season APEX 158Event APEX 131.64Rank 55Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10114, 3536, 6324

/ 100 compat

Projected

268.6 pts

~0.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 10114, 3536, 6324

Auto

42.8 16%

Teleop

158.7 61%

Endgame

59.8 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2040, 10340, 9484

/ 100 compat

Projected

432.7 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 2040, 10340, 9484

Auto

77.5 18%

Teleop

228.8 54%

Endgame

114.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.91 · Blue 2.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score268.6pts

Blue projected score432.7pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -164.1
Score range: 198–504
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 758 vs event baseline 393.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

614.8Season APEX649.7

42.8Auto77.5

158.7Teleop228.8

59.8Endgame114.3

175Consistency99

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	103
teleop	221	172
endgame	119	77
foul	0	0
total	406	352

Result

Final score

406 – 352

Prediction missed · off by 109.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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