Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

344.16 – 277.05

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

292 – 244

Prediction correct · off by 42.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 741.6 ±10.4

2252The Mavericks

Season APEX 254.4Event APEX 135.81Rank 49Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10217Catahoula Blue Dogs

Season APEX 169Event APEX 80.33Rank 46Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

498The Cobra Commanders

A+

Season APEX 318.2Event APEX 128.02Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 668.8 ±13.9

2096RoboActive

Provisional

Season APEX 188.5Event APEX 2.66Rank 61Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 107.94Rank 42Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9072TigerBots

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 166.45Rank 34Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2252, 10217, 498

/ 100 compat

Projected

344.2 pts

~2.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 2252, 10217, 498

Auto

83.8 25%

Teleop

197.8 60%

Endgame

48.0 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2096, 10014, 9072

/ 100 compat

Projected

277 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 2096, 10014, 9072

Auto

51.1 19%

Teleop

143.0 52%

Endgame

79.2 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.01 · Blue 1.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score344.2pts

Blue projected score277pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 67.1
Score range: 206–415
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 536 vs event baseline 395.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

741.6Season APEX668.8

83.8Auto51.1

197.8Teleop143

48Endgame79.2

188Consistency69

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	118	57
teleop	149	110
endgame	0	62
foul	25	15
total	292	244

Result

Final score

292 – 244

Prediction correct · off by 42.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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