Qualification · Qualification 68

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

434.05 – 431.96

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

328 – 624

Prediction missed · off by 149 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 662.1 ±9.9

9757Mecha Marauders

Season APEX 220.2Event APEX 79Rank 66Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9277Sparkans

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 147.84Rank 70Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3414Hackbots

Season APEX 266.4Event APEX 207.21Rank 33Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 775.9 ±8.7

3255SuperNURDs

A+

Season APEX 296.9Event APEX 227.56Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

33Killer Bees

Season APEX 256.8Event APEX 121.74Rank 14Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2848Rangers

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 82.66Rank 43Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9757, 9277, 3414

/ 100 compat

Projected

434.1 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 9757, 9277, 3414

Auto

36.6 9%

Teleop

234.1 56%

Endgame

148.5 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3255, 33, 2848

/ 100 compat

Projected

432 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 3255, 33, 2848

Auto

78.6 19%

Teleop

209.4 50%

Endgame

130.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score434.1pts

Blue projected score432pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 2.1
Score range: 361–505
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 952 vs event baseline 394.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

662.1Season APEX775.9

36.6Auto78.6

234.1Teleop209.4

148.5Endgame130.3

143Consistency155

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	41
teleop	186	385
endgame	74	198
foul	0	0
total	328	624

Result

Final score

328 – 624

Prediction missed · off by 149 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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