Qualification · Qualification 67

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

515.49 – 541.89

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

393 – 372

Prediction missed · off by 146.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 815.2 ±8.7

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 152.13Rank 39Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

955Ctrl C

A+

Season APEX 311.5Event APEX 123.32Rank 19Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

836The RoboBees

Season APEX 272.5Event APEX 240.04Rank 8Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 764.7 ±8.4

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 180.82Rank 22Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3061Huskie Robotics

Season APEX 205.2Event APEX 175.1Rank 18Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 185.97Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 422, 955, 836

/ 100 compat

Projected

515.5 pts

~1.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 422, 955, 836

Auto

136.2 27%

Teleop

251.2 50%

Endgame

118.3 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 118, 3061, 4946

/ 100 compat

Projected

541.9 pts

~1.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 118, 3061, 4946

Auto

146.0 27%

Teleop

292.1 54%

Endgame

98.7 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score515.5pts

Blue projected score541.9pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -26.4
Score range: 444–613
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 765 vs event baseline 394.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

815.2Season APEX764.7

136.2Auto146

251.2Teleop292.1

118.3Endgame98.7

127Consistency103

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	76	104
teleop	214	237
endgame	88	16
foul	15	15
total	393	372

Result

Final score

393 – 372

Prediction missed · off by 146.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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