Qualification · Qualification 66

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

454.36 – 484.47

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

385 – 217

Prediction missed · off by 168.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 590.6 ±10.5

4391BraveBots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 237.31Rank 9Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5968Little Apple Cyborgs

Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 108.81Rank 47Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2704Roaring Robotics

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 108.24Rank 56Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 641.3 ±10.5

67The HOT Team

Season APEX 280.7Event APEX 249.64Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

334TechKnights

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 104.79Rank 69Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7257Semiconductors

Season APEX 179.4Event APEX 130.04Rank 54Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4391, 5968, 2704

/ 100 compat

Projected

454.4 pts

~1.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 4391, 5968, 2704

Auto

86.4 20%

Teleop

222.3 52%

Endgame

117.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 67, 334, 7257

/ 100 compat

Projected

484.5 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 67, 334, 7257

Auto

99.1 21%

Teleop

249.6 53%

Endgame

125.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score454.4pts

Blue projected score484.5pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30.1
Score range: 383–555
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 602 vs event baseline 396.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

590.6Season APEX641.3

86.4Auto99.1

222.3Teleop249.6

117.7Endgame125.3

53Consistency159

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	53
teleop	220	124
endgame	80	35
foul	30	5
total	385	217

Result

Final score

385 – 217

Prediction missed · off by 168.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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