Qualification · Qualification 64

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

108.18 – 406.78

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

125 – 604

Prediction correct · off by 107 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 544.7 ±11.7

2619The Charge

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 116.7Rank 40Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6652Tigres

Season APEX 150.4Event APEX 10.12Rank 73Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7551Extreme Mechanism

Season APEX 179Event APEX -18.64Rank 72Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 764.3 ±8.7

3770BlitzCreek

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 80.69Rank 57Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1002CircuitRunners Robotics

Season APEX 265.3Event APEX 140.92Rank 37Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5026Iron Panthers

A+

Season APEX 312.8Event APEX 185.17Rank 12Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2619, 6652, 7551

/ 100 compat

Projected

108.2 pts

~0.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 2619, 6652, 7551

Auto

39.3 36%

Teleop

30.1 27%

Endgame

41.3 37%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 3770, 1002, 5026

/ 100 compat

Projected

406.8 pts

~2.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 3770, 1002, 5026

Auto

78.9 20%

Teleop

262.2 65%

Endgame

63.3 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.56 · Blue 2.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score108.2pts

Blue projected score406.8pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -298.6
Score range: 36–479
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 729 vs event baseline 397.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

544.7Season APEX764.3

39.3Auto78.9

30.1Teleop262.2

41.3Endgame63.3

126Consistency116

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	150
teleop	46	347
endgame	46	107
foul	0	0
total	125	604

Result

Final score

125 – 604

Prediction correct · off by 107 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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