Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

632.74 – 272.91

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

512 – 302

Prediction correct · off by 74.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 868.9 ±9.8

9483Overcharge

Season APEX 377.8Event APEX 240.75Rank 11Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4451ROBOTZ Garage

Season APEX 220.7Event APEX 129.75Rank 26Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

117Steel Dragons

Season APEX 270.4Event APEX 262.24Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 590.5 ±8.7

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 107.2Rank 42Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

619Cavalier Robotics

Season APEX 200.8Event APEX 85.86Rank 60Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6829Ignite Robotics

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 79.85Rank 58Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9483, 4451, 117

/ 100 compat

Projected

632.7 pts

~2.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 9483, 4451, 117

Auto

81.6 13%

Teleop

373.7 59%

Endgame

180.0 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10014, 619, 6829

/ 100 compat

Projected

272.9 pts

~0.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 10014, 619, 6829

Auto

60.9 23%

Teleop

156.1 58%

Endgame

51.0 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 62%

Supercharged: 25%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.85 · Blue 0.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score632.7pts

Blue projected score272.9pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 62%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 25%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 359.8
Score range: 201–705
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 814 vs event baseline 397.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

868.9Season APEX590.5

81.6Auto60.9

373.7Teleop156.1

180Endgame51

155Consistency113

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	72	69
teleop	340	122
endgame	100	111
foul	0	0
total	512	302

Result

Final score

512 – 302

Prediction correct · off by 74.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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