Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

472.44 – 296.07

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

422 – 453

Prediction missed · off by 103.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 758.6 ±8.8

2252The Mavericks

Season APEX 254.4Event APEX 147.85Rank 49Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9072TigerBots

Season APEX 254.7Event APEX 173.1Rank 34Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 151.49Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 649.1 ±11.9

6940Violet Z

Season APEX 206.2Event APEX 42.87Rank 64Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 89

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 155.49Rank 27Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2040DERT - Dunlap Eagles Robotics Team

Season APEX 192Event APEX 97.71Rank 36Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2252, 9072, 190

/ 100 compat

Projected

472.4 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 2252, 9072, 190

Auto

73.5 16%

Teleop

259.9 57%

Endgame

123.6 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6940, 2877, 2040

/ 100 compat

Projected

296.1 pts

~0.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 6940, 2877, 2040

Auto

37.6 13%

Teleop

165.6 57%

Endgame

88.2 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.44 · Blue 0.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score472.4pts

Blue projected score296.1pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 176.4
Score range: 224–544
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 875 vs event baseline 398.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

758.6Season APEX649.1

73.5Auto37.6

259.9Teleop165.6

123.6Endgame88.2

134Consistency180

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	83
teleop	217	237
endgame	176	133
foul	5	0
total	422	453

Result

Final score

422 – 453

Prediction missed · off by 103.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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