Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

312.91 – 326.33

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

317 – 288

Prediction missed · off by 21.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 553.6 ±11.6

334TechKnights

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 117.87Rank 69Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9484Robot's District

Season APEX 158Event APEX 119.35Rank 55Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2638Rebel Robotics

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 75.69Rank 59Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 712.5 ±8.7

321RoboLancers

Season APEX 131.7Event APEX 25.03Rank 62Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 181.51Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1306BadgerBOTS

Season APEX 257.2Event APEX 119.79Rank 30Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 334, 9484, 2638

/ 100 compat

Projected

312.9 pts

~1.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 334, 9484, 2638

Auto

101.1 32%

Teleop

149.9 48%

Endgame

60.5 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 321, 4946, 1306

/ 100 compat

Projected

326.3 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 321, 4946, 1306

Auto

58.0 17%

Teleop

149.8 45%

Endgame

124.1 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score312.9pts

Blue projected score326.3pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 20%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -13.4
Score range: 241–398
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 605 vs event baseline 399.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

553.6Season APEX712.5

101.1Auto58

149.9Teleop149.8

60.5Endgame124.1

114Consistency135

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	81	77
teleop	160	133
endgame	41	78
foul	35	0
total	317	288

Result

Final score

317 – 288

Prediction missed · off by 21.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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