Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

266.46 – 358.04

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

434 – 356

Prediction missed · off by 84.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 718.4 ±11.2

10340ITKAN Girls

A+

Season APEX 299.7Event APEX 146.73Rank 32Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7563SESI SENAI MEGAZORD

Season APEX 186.3Event APEX 83.86Rank 44Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9646The Marinators

Season APEX 232.4Event APEX 35.87Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 668.6 ±9.9

9277Sparkans

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 161.44Rank 70Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

955Ctrl C

A+

Season APEX 311.5Event APEX 127.14Rank 19Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

245Adambots

Season APEX 181.6Event APEX 69.46Rank 67Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10340, 7563, 9646

/ 100 compat

Projected

266.5 pts

~1.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 10340, 7563, 9646

Auto

38.6 14%

Teleop

123.4 45%

Endgame

111.5 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9277, 955, 245

/ 100 compat

Projected

358 pts

~2.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 9277, 955, 245

Auto

75.3 22%

Teleop

172.4 49%

Endgame

100.6 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.04 · Blue 2.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score266.5pts

Blue projected score358pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -91.6
Score range: 194–430
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 790 vs event baseline 399.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

718.4Season APEX668.6

38.6Auto75.3

123.4Teleop172.4

111.5Endgame100.6

112Consistency128

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	65
teleop	250	198
endgame	103	63
foul	30	30
total	434	356

Result

Final score

434 – 356

Prediction missed · off by 84.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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