Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

379.98 – 480.25

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

648 – 591

Prediction missed · off by 189.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 665.5 ±9.3

3630Stampede

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 80.19Rank 29Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

67The HOT Team

Season APEX 280.7Event APEX 213.43Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 86.36Rank 39Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 791.3 ±8.7

1002CircuitRunners Robotics

Season APEX 265.3Event APEX 119.67Rank 37Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

360The Revolution

Season APEX 272.4Event APEX 196.06Rank 38Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7220Steel Falcons

Season APEX 253.6Event APEX 164.52Rank 15Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3630, 67, 422

/ 100 compat

Projected

380 pts

~1.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 3630, 67, 422

Auto

83.9 23%

Teleop

185.0 50%

Endgame

99.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1002, 360, 7220

/ 100 compat

Projected

480.3 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 1002, 360, 7220

Auto

95.9 20%

Teleop

282.2 60%

Endgame

95.5 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.22 · Blue 2.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score380pts

Blue projected score480.3pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 22%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -100.3
Score range: 309–551
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 1239 vs event baseline 395.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

665.5Season APEX791.3

83.9Auto95.9

185Teleop282.2

99.1Endgame95.5

171Consistency163

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	122	109
teleop	339	342
endgame	187	140
foul	0	0
total	648	591

Result

Final score

648 – 591

Prediction missed · off by 189.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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