Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

459.63 – 590.79

16%84%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

398 – 815

Prediction correct · off by 142.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 628.2 ±10.5

179Children of the Swamp

Season APEX 230Event APEX 165.25Rank 41Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

836The RoboBees

Season APEX 272.5Event APEX 228.58Rank 8Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11269Batteries Not Included

Season APEX 125.7Event APEX 65.8Rank 63Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 859.7 ±8.7

7558ALT-F4

Season APEX 337.3Event APEX 245.2Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8612Calvin Christian Robotics

Season APEX 237.6Event APEX 153.83Rank 20Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4391BraveBots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 191.76Rank 9Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 179, 836, 11269

/ 100 compat

Projected

459.6 pts

~0.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 179, 836, 11269

Auto

105.7 24%

Teleop

223.2 50%

Endgame

114.5 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7558, 8612, 4391

/ 100 compat

Projected

590.8 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 7558, 8612, 4391

Auto

117.0 21%

Teleop

312.2 55%

Endgame

139.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.91 · Blue 2.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score459.6pts

Blue projected score590.8pts

Red win probability16%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -131.2
Score range: 390–661
Upset likelihood: 16%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1213 vs event baseline 391.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

628.2Season APEX859.7

105.7Auto117

223.2Teleop312.2

114.5Endgame139.3

120Consistency177

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	99	150
teleop	189	483
endgame	100	167
foul	10	15
total	398	815

Result

Final score

398 – 815

Prediction correct · off by 142.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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