Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

517.33 – 252.73

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

412 – 375

Prediction correct · off by 113.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 835.4 ±8.7

33Killer Bees

Season APEX 256.8Event APEX 138.92Rank 14Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5026Iron Panthers

A+

Season APEX 312.8Event APEX 204.09Rank 12Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2522Royal Robotics

Season APEX 265.8Event APEX 174.32Rank 24Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 642.4 ±9.3

4635PrepaTec - Botbusters

Season APEX 262Event APEX 56.78Rank 28Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1076PiHi Samurai

Season APEX 201Event APEX 81.61Rank 45Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7257Semiconductors

Season APEX 179.4Event APEX 114.34Rank 54Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 33, 5026, 2522

/ 100 compat

Projected

517.3 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 33, 5026, 2522

Auto

104.7 21%

Teleop

266.3 53%

Endgame

126.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4635, 1076, 7257

/ 100 compat

Projected

252.7 pts

~0.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 4635, 1076, 7257

Auto

84.7 34%

Teleop

128.2 51%

Endgame

38.3 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.72 · Blue 0.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score517.3pts

Blue projected score252.7pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 264.6
Score range: 183–587
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 787 vs event baseline 391.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

835.4Season APEX642.4

104.7Auto84.7

266.3Teleop128.2

126.9Endgame38.3

187Consistency160

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	49	85
teleop	185	206
endgame	163	84
foul	15	0
total	412	375

Result

Final score

412 – 375

Prediction correct · off by 113.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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