Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

225.72 – 244.52

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

466 – 455

Prediction missed · off by 225.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 615.3 ±7.7

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 140.93Rank 22Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6829Ignite Robotics

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 27.29Rank 58Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2619The Charge

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 57.5Rank 40Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 661.9 ±9.3

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 113.42Rank 50Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6766AtomStorm

Season APEX 226.7Event APEX 56.13Rank 74Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3536Electro Eagles

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 74.97Rank 25Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 118, 6829, 2619

/ 100 compat

Projected

225.7 pts

~1.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 118, 6829, 2619

Auto

66.3 29%

Teleop

131.9 58%

Endgame

31.0 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 7%

Blue · 48, 6766, 3536

/ 100 compat

Projected

244.5 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 48, 6766, 3536

Auto

36.6 16%

Teleop

118.7 50%

Endgame

80.0 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 7%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.54 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score225.7pts

Blue projected score244.5pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 7%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18.8
Score range: 156–315
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 921 vs event baseline 389.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

615.3Season APEX661.9

66.3Auto36.6

131.9Teleop118.7

31Endgame80

114Consistency152

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	96	96
teleop	249	226
endgame	121	123
foul	0	10
total	466	455

Result

Final score

466 – 455

Prediction missed · off by 225.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

Match videos

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