Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

323.84 – 128.71

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

199 – 397

Prediction missed · off by 196.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 502 ±9.9

4967That ONE Team-OurNextEngineers

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 182.14Rank 52Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6652Tigres

Season APEX 150.4Event APEX 37.69Rank 73Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

619Cavalier Robotics

Season APEX 200.8Event APEX 104.01Rank 60Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 638.9 ±11.7

5968Little Apple Cyborgs

Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 75.39Rank 47Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7551Extreme Mechanism

Season APEX 179Event APEX -25.42Rank 72Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

498The Cobra Commanders

A+

Season APEX 318.2Event APEX 78.74Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4967, 6652, 619

/ 100 compat

Projected

323.8 pts

~2.3 RP (championship)

Teams: 4967, 6652, 619

Auto

46.3 15%

Teleop

160.6 52%

Endgame

103.8 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5968, 7551, 498

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.7 pts

~0.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 5968, 7551, 498

Auto

50.1 38%

Teleop

36.3 28%

Endgame

45.3 34%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.32 · Blue 0.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score323.8pts

Blue projected score128.7pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 195.1
Score range: 59–394
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 596 vs event baseline 391.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

502Season APEX638.9

46.3Auto50.1

160.6Teleop36.3

103.8Endgame45.3

128Consistency101

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	113
teleop	111	201
endgame	33	68
foul	0	15
total	199	397

Result

Final score

199 – 397

Prediction missed · off by 196.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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