Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

511.12 – 254.23

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

583 – 255

Prediction correct · off by 36.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 759.1 ±12.2

9597Luban Robotics

A+

Season APEX 324.6Event APEX 177.79Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

2704Roaring Robotics

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 86.64Rank 56Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

117Steel Dragons

Season APEX 270.4Event APEX 246.69Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 628.4 ±11.4

7403Lightning Blue Lizards

Season APEX 220Event APEX 74.84Rank 65Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 91

2848Rangers

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 101.81Rank 43Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3770BlitzCreek

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 77.58Rank 57Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9597, 2704, 117

/ 100 compat

Projected

511.1 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 9597, 2704, 117

Auto

86.9 17%

Teleop

284.2 56%

Endgame

138.0 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7403, 2848, 3770

/ 100 compat

Projected

254.2 pts

~0.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 7403, 2848, 3770

Auto

54.2 22%

Teleop

152.6 62%

Endgame

38.5 16%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.73 · Blue 0.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score511.1pts

Blue projected score254.2pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 256.9
Score range: 184–581
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 838 vs event baseline 391.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

759.1Season APEX628.4

86.9Auto54.2

284.2Teleop152.6

138Endgame38.5

156Consistency141

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	88	43
teleop	365	131
endgame	125	76
foul	5	5
total	583	255

Result

Final score

583 – 255

Prediction correct · off by 36.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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