Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

437.79 – 381.62

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

471 – 336

Prediction correct · off by 39.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 764.8 ±10.7

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 101.7Rank 42Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9597Luban Robotics

A+

Season APEX 324.6Event APEX 173.81Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

3536Electro Eagles

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 162.28Rank 25Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 636.3 ±8.7

4967That ONE Team-OurNextEngineers

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 85.7Rank 52Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1002CircuitRunners Robotics

Season APEX 265.3Event APEX 206.72Rank 37Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9757Mecha Marauders

Season APEX 220.2Event APEX 89.2Rank 66Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10014, 9597, 3536

/ 100 compat

Projected

437.8 pts

~2.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 10014, 9597, 3536

Auto

83.3 20%

Teleop

230.3 54%

Endgame

112.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4967, 1002, 9757

/ 100 compat

Projected

381.6 pts

~1.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 4967, 1002, 9757

Auto

78.0 21%

Teleop

211.7 56%

Endgame

90.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.11 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score437.8pts

Blue projected score381.6pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 56.2
Score range: 307–513
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 807 vs event baseline 415.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

764.8Season APEX636.3

83.3Auto78

230.3Teleop211.7

112Endgame90

152Consistency133

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	91	35
teleop	286	202
endgame	79	99
foul	15	0
total	471	336

Result

Final score

471 – 336

Prediction correct · off by 39.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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