Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

378.38 – 358.58

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

346 – 315

Prediction correct · off by 38 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 812.3 ±9.3

6766AtomStorm

Season APEX 226.7Event APEX 79.65Rank 74Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4635PrepaTec - Botbusters

Season APEX 262Event APEX 47.04Rank 28Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 251.69Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 667.2 ±9.3

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 164.92Rank 27Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10114Phantom Talons

Season APEX 131.5Event APEX -0.69Rank 68Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4391BraveBots

Season APEX 284.8Event APEX 194.35Rank 9Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6766, 4635, 4946

/ 100 compat

Projected

378.4 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 6766, 4635, 4946

Auto

92.7 24%

Teleop

234.3 61%

Endgame

55.3 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2877, 10114, 4391

/ 100 compat

Projected

358.6 pts

~1.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 2877, 10114, 4391

Auto

57.1 16%

Teleop

215.8 62%

Endgame

75.6 22%

Strengths

· Low variance, consistent output

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score378.4pts

Blue projected score358.6pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 19.8
Score range: 290–447
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 661 vs event baseline 382.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

812.3Season APEX667.2

92.7Auto57.1

234.3Teleop215.8

55.3Endgame75.6

207Consistency237

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	111	86
teleop	115	129
endgame	120	100
foul	0	0
total	346	315

Result

Final score

346 – 315

Prediction correct · off by 38 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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