Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

390.14 – 237.57

87%13%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

515 – 260

Prediction correct · off by 73.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 643.5 ±8.7

67The HOT Team

Season APEX 280.7Event APEX 192.71Rank 7Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

245Adambots

Season APEX 181.6Event APEX 77.76Rank 67Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3603Cyber Coyotes

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 119.67Rank 51Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 650.4 ±10.7

3536Electro Eagles

Season APEX 214.6Event APEX 103.23Rank 25Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7551Extreme Mechanism

Season APEX 179Event APEX -17.82Rank 72Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 95

33Killer Bees

Season APEX 256.8Event APEX 152.16Rank 14Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 67, 245, 3603

/ 100 compat

Projected

390.1 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 67, 245, 3603

Auto

52.3 13%

Teleop

200.2 51%

Endgame

142.5 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3536, 7551, 33

/ 100 compat

Projected

237.6 pts

~0.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 3536, 7551, 33

Auto

52.8 22%

Teleop

123.0 50%

Endgame

68.3 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 18%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.4 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score390.1pts

Blue projected score237.6pts

Red win probability87%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 18%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 152.6
Score range: 169–459
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 775 vs event baseline 382.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

643.5Season APEX650.4

52.3Auto52.8

200.2Teleop123

142.5Endgame68.3

176Consistency137

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	109	34
teleop	265	118
endgame	126	108
foul	15	0
total	515	260

Result

Final score

515 – 260

Prediction correct · off by 73.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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