Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

257.75 – 318.98

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

433 – 430

Prediction missed · off by 143.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 598.5 ±9.9

619Cavalier Robotics

Season APEX 200.8Event APEX 55.92Rank 60Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9277Sparkans

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 120.96Rank 70Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2848Rangers

Season APEX 222.2Event APEX 80.87Rank 43Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 779.1 ±8.7

8Paly Robotics

A+

Season APEX 305.7Event APEX 77.52Rank 23Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

360The Revolution

Season APEX 272.4Event APEX 175.73Rank 38Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1076PiHi Samurai

Season APEX 201Event APEX 65.73Rank 45Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 619, 9277, 2848

/ 100 compat

Projected

257.8 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 619, 9277, 2848

Auto

48.5 20%

Teleop

118.9 48%

Endgame

81.1 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8, 360, 1076

/ 100 compat

Projected

319 pts

~2.2 RP (championship)

Teams: 8, 360, 1076

Auto

59.6 19%

Teleop

176.5 58%

Endgame

70.1 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.1 · Blue 2.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score257.8pts

Blue projected score319pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 66%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -61.2
Score range: 189–388
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 863 vs event baseline 381.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

598.5Season APEX779.1

48.5Auto59.6

118.9Teleop176.5

81.1Endgame70.1

136Consistency147

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	91
teleop	210	271
endgame	133	68
foul	25	0
total	433	430

Result

Final score

433 – 430

Prediction missed · off by 143.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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