Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

286.43 – 441.43

13%87%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

227 – 507

Prediction correct · off by 62.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 673.3 ±10.7

2619The Charge

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 89.48Rank 40Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 146.68Rank 42Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9646The Marinators

Season APEX 232.4Event APEX 50.27Rank 53Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 655 ±10.5

3630Stampede

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 88.51Rank 29Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7558ALT-F4

Season APEX 337.3Event APEX 258.63Rank 4Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2704Roaring Robotics

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 94.29Rank 56Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2619, 10014, 9646

/ 100 compat

Projected

286.4 pts

~0.9 RP (championship)

Teams: 2619, 10014, 9646

Auto

62.4 23%

Teleop

117.9 43%

Endgame

96.6 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 3630, 7558, 2704

/ 100 compat

Projected

441.4 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 3630, 7558, 2704

Auto

99.3 24%

Teleop

248.0 59%

Endgame

73.0 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.88 · Blue 2.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score286.4pts

Blue projected score441.4pts

Red win probability13%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 60%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 16%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -155
Score range: 217–510
Upset likelihood: 13%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 734 vs event baseline 381.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

673.3Season APEX655

62.4Auto99.3

117.9Teleop248

96.6Endgame73

165Consistency209

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	84
teleop	117	260
endgame	73	118
foul	0	45
total	227	507

Result

Final score

227 – 507

Prediction correct · off by 62.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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