Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

357.23 – 166.14

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

470 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 72.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 722.3 ±10.7

7403Lightning Blue Lizards

Season APEX 220Event APEX 32.27Rank 65Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 91

3414Hackbots

Season APEX 266.4Event APEX 174.08Rank 33Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 150.88Rank 22Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 455.7 ±9.8

3770BlitzCreek

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 88.11Rank 57Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5968Little Apple Cyborgs

Season APEX 141.7Event APEX 40.29Rank 47Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10396Mostra

Season APEX 127.8Event APEX 37.74Rank 75Record 0-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7403, 3414, 118

/ 100 compat

Projected

357.2 pts

~2.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 7403, 3414, 118

Auto

79.7 22%

Teleop

173.1 49%

Endgame

103.2 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 3770, 5968, 10396

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.1 pts

~0.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 3770, 5968, 10396

Auto

35.1 22%

Teleop

66.7 42%

Endgame

57.5 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.52 · Blue 0.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score357.2pts

Blue projected score166.1pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 191.1
Score range: 97–426
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 669 vs event baseline 382.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

722.3Season APEX455.7

79.7Auto35.1

173.1Teleop66.7

103.2Endgame57.5

191Consistency152

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	69
teleop	283	92
endgame	115	38
foul	15	0
total	470	199

Result

Final score

470 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 72.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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