Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

245.1 – 246.99

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

377 – 400

Prediction correct · off by 142.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 654.4 ±12.2

7257Semiconductors

Season APEX 179.4Event APEX 76.36Rank 54Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9597Luban Robotics

A+

Season APEX 324.6Event APEX 122.54Rank 31Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 95

6652Tigres

Season APEX 150.4Event APEX 46.2Rank 73Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 675.6 ±13.6

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 112.53Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8612Calvin Christian Robotics

Season APEX 237.6Event APEX 121.67Rank 20Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2096RoboActive

Provisional

Season APEX 188.5Event APEX 12.79Rank 61Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7257, 9597, 6652

/ 100 compat

Projected

245.1 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 7257, 9597, 6652

Auto

73.8 31%

Teleop

140.9 59%

Endgame

23.0 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 190, 8612, 2096

/ 100 compat

Projected

247 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 190, 8612, 2096

Auto

74.5 29%

Teleop

142.9 56%

Endgame

39.5 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.65

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score245.1pts

Blue projected score247pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1.9
Score range: 176–316
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 777 vs event baseline 382.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

654.4Season APEX675.6

73.8Auto74.5

140.9Teleop142.9

23Endgame39.5

140Consistency63

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	85	88
teleop	191	236
endgame	91	76
foul	10	0
total	377	400

Result

Final score

377 – 400

Prediction correct · off by 142.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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