Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

442.07 – 427.23

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

504 – 371

Prediction correct · off by 59.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 741.9 ±9.9

9484Robot's District

Season APEX 158Event APEX 121.8Rank 55Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

360The Revolution

Season APEX 272.4Event APEX 185.03Rank 38Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

955Ctrl C

A+

Season APEX 311.5Event APEX 135.24Rank 19Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 647.4 ±8.7

3603Cyber Coyotes

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 106.85Rank 51Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2619The Charge

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 129.83Rank 40Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 190.55Rank 27Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9484, 360, 955

/ 100 compat

Projected

442.1 pts

~1.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 9484, 360, 955

Auto

81.8 19%

Teleop

232.4 54%

Endgame

113.2 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3603, 2619, 2877

/ 100 compat

Projected

427.2 pts

~1.6 RP (championship)

Teams: 3603, 2619, 2877

Auto

87.2 21%

Teleop

202.1 48%

Endgame

133.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.81 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score442.1pts

Blue projected score427.2pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.8
Score range: 352–517
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 875 vs event baseline 415.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

741.9Season APEX647.4

81.8Auto87.2

232.4Teleop202.1

113.2Endgame133.5

156Consistency122

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	97	62
teleop	255	170
endgame	142	129
foul	10	10
total	504	371

Result

Final score

504 – 371

Prediction correct · off by 59.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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