Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

501.52 – 371.53

83%17%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

554 – 469

Prediction correct · off by 75 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 684.2 ±8.7

4967That ONE Team-OurNextEngineers

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 172.52Rank 52Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5026Iron Panthers

A+

Season APEX 312.8Event APEX 210.1Rank 12Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 118.9Rank 50Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 627.3 ±10.5

117Steel Dragons

Season APEX 270.4Event APEX 234.05Rank 5Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 92.5Rank 39Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11269Batteries Not Included

Season APEX 125.7Event APEX 44.98Rank 63Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4967, 5026, 48

/ 100 compat

Projected

501.5 pts

~2.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 4967, 5026, 48

Auto

56.0 11%

Teleop

321.3 65%

Endgame

119.8 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 117, 422, 11269

/ 100 compat

Projected

371.5 pts

~1.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 117, 422, 11269

Auto

70.8 19%

Teleop

266.2 71%

Endgame

36.7 10%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.42 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score501.5pts

Blue projected score371.5pts

Red win probability83%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 130
Score range: 304–570
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1023 vs event baseline 379.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

684.2Season APEX627.3

56Auto70.8

321.3Teleop266.2

119.8Endgame36.7

139Consistency195

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	107	94
teleop	273	233
endgame	154	142
foul	20	0
total	554	469

Result

Final score

554 – 469

Prediction correct · off by 75 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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