Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

478.55 – 433.3

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

580 – 421

Prediction correct · off by 56.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 872.7 ±8.7

8612Calvin Christian Robotics

Season APEX 237.6Event APEX 118.16Rank 20Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

955Ctrl C

A+

Season APEX 311.5Event APEX 141.63Rank 19Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4946The Alpha Dogs

A+

Season APEX 323.6Event APEX 218.76Rank 21Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 693 ±8.7

1076PiHi Samurai

Season APEX 201Event APEX 103.8Rank 45Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10014REBELLION

Season APEX 225.6Event APEX 156.26Rank 42Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3414Hackbots

Season APEX 266.4Event APEX 173.24Rank 33Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8612, 955, 4946

/ 100 compat

Projected

478.6 pts

~2.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 8612, 955, 4946

Auto

115.3 25%

Teleop

267.3 58%

Endgame

81.1 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1076, 10014, 3414

/ 100 compat

Projected

433.3 pts

~1.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 1076, 10014, 3414

Auto

80.9 19%

Teleop

243.2 57%

Endgame

100.6 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.96 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score478.6pts

Blue projected score433.3pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 45.3
Score range: 367–545
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 1001 vs event baseline 368.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

872.7Season APEX693

115.3Auto80.9

267.3Teleop243.2

81.1Endgame100.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	139	77
teleop	312	206
endgame	129	133
foul	0	5
total	580	421

Result

Final score

580 – 421

Prediction correct · off by 56.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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