Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

214.98 – 450.3

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

434 – 404

Prediction missed · off by 132.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 716.8 ±7.7

3603Cyber Coyotes

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 56Rank 51Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 103.99Rank 22Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10340ITKAN Girls

A+

Season APEX 299.7Event APEX 54.99Rank 32Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 784.6 ±9.8

498The Cobra Commanders

A+

Season APEX 318.2Event APEX 110.79Rank 13Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3630Stampede

Season APEX 153.6Event APEX 119.43Rank 29Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5026Iron Panthers

A+

Season APEX 312.8Event APEX 220.08Rank 12Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3603, 118, 10340

/ 100 compat

Projected

215 pts

~0.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 3603, 118, 10340

Auto

45.1 22%

Teleop

64.3 31%

Endgame

96.9 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 498, 3630, 5026

/ 100 compat

Projected

450.3 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 498, 3630, 5026

Auto

110.6 25%

Teleop

234.5 52%

Endgame

105.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.69 · Blue 2.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score215pts

Blue projected score450.3pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 23%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -235.3
Score range: 150–515
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 838 vs event baseline 363.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

716.8Season APEX784.6

45.1Auto110.6

64.3Teleop234.5

96.9Endgame105.5

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	89	90
teleop	253	297
endgame	92	2
foul	0	15
total	434	404

Result

Final score

434 – 404

Prediction missed · off by 132.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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