Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

321.19 – 571.98

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

292 – 576

Prediction correct · off by 16.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 648.2 ±9.3

4451ROBOTZ Garage

Season APEX 220.7Event APEX 151.07Rank 26Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

619Cavalier Robotics

Season APEX 200.8Event APEX 91.85Rank 60Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6766AtomStorm

Season APEX 226.7Event APEX 78.27Rank 74Record 1-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 828.7 ±8.1

5026Iron Panthers

A+

Season APEX 312.8Event APEX 192.86Rank 12Record 7-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3414Hackbots

Season APEX 266.4Event APEX 194.44Rank 33Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 184.68Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4451, 619, 6766

/ 100 compat

Projected

321.2 pts

~0.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 4451, 619, 6766

Auto

48.2 15%

Teleop

151.7 48%

Endgame

113.2 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5026, 3414, 190

/ 100 compat

Projected

572 pts

~2.8 RP (championship)

Teams: 5026, 3414, 190

Auto

115.0 20%

Teleop

309.8 54%

Endgame

143.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 0.51 · Blue 2.82

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score321.2pts

Blue projected score572pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 63%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 25%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -250.8
Score range: 246–647
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 868 vs event baseline 415.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

648.2Season APEX828.7

48.2Auto115

151.7Teleop309.8

113.2Endgame143.9

162Consistency137

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	101
teleop	140	328
endgame	109	147
foul	0	0
total	292	576

Result

Final score

292 – 576

Prediction correct · off by 16.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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