Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

452.3 – 107.88

98%2%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

403 – 272

Prediction correct · off by 106.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 730.6 ±8.1

2522Royal Robotics

Season APEX 265.8Event APEX 155.08Rank 24Record 7-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

190Gompei and the HERD

Season APEX 249.5Event APEX 134.18Rank 6Record 8-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2619The Charge

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 163.04Rank 40Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 573.4 ±9.8

2638Rebel Robotics

Season APEX 214.4Event APEX 35.83Rank 59Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

422The Mech Tech Dragons

Season APEX 231.2Event APEX 47.66Rank 39Record 5-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10396Mostra

Season APEX 127.8Event APEX 24.39Rank 75Record 0-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2522, 190, 2619

/ 100 compat

Projected

452.3 pts

~2.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 2522, 190, 2619

Auto

87.6 20%

Teleop

222.4 50%

Endgame

133.4 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2638, 422, 10396

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.9 pts

~0.5 RP (championship)

Teams: 2638, 422, 10396

Auto

70.3 63%

Teleop

44.3 40%

Endgame

-3.7 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 58%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.68 · Blue 0.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score452.3pts

Blue projected score107.9pts

Red win probability98%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 58%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 344.4
Score range: 42–518
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 675 vs event baseline 364.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

730.6Season APEX573.4

87.6Auto70.3

222.4Teleop44.3

133.4Endgame-3.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	130	64
teleop	156	175
endgame	117	33
foul	0	0
total	403	272

Result

Final score

403 – 272

Prediction correct · off by 106.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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