Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

155.45 – 190.98

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

413 – 272

Prediction missed · off by 169.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 582.5 ±11.1

6652Tigres

Season APEX 150.4Event APEX -2.1Rank 73Record 2-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2877LigerBots

Season APEX 250.9Event APEX 100.43Rank 27Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

334TechKnights

Season APEX 181.2Event APEX 57.12Rank 69Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 559.6 ±12.4

9277Sparkans

Season APEX 175.5Event APEX 123.28Rank 70Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6829Ignite Robotics

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 19.58Rank 58Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7403Lightning Blue Lizards

Season APEX 220Event APEX 48.12Rank 65Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6652, 2877, 334

/ 100 compat

Projected

155.5 pts

~1.4 RP (championship)

Teams: 6652, 2877, 334

Auto

56.9 40%

Teleop

60.4 42%

Endgame

26.2 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9277, 6829, 7403

/ 100 compat

Projected

191 pts

~1.7 RP (championship)

Teams: 9277, 6829, 7403

Auto

16.8 9%

Teleop

107.0 58%

Endgame

60.2 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 1.35 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score155.5pts

Blue projected score191pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -35.5
Score range: 89–257
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 685 vs event baseline 365.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

582.5Season APEX559.6

56.9Auto16.8

60.4Teleop107

26.2Endgame60.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	72	43
teleop	245	151
endgame	96	78
foul	0	0
total	413	272

Result

Final score

413 – 272

Prediction missed · off by 169.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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