Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

396.02 – 328.25

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

344 – 232

Prediction correct · off by 74.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 579.2 ±9.3

3255SuperNURDs

A+

Season APEX 296.9Event APEX 173.96Rank 16Record 6-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10114Phantom Talons

Season APEX 131.5Event APEX 24.8Rank 68Record 2-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4967That ONE Team-OurNextEngineers

Season APEX 150.8Event APEX 197.26Rank 52Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 582.6 ±15.1

2704Roaring Robotics

Season APEX 164.1Event APEX 93.5Rank 56Record 3-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2096RoboActive

Provisional

Season APEX 188.5Event APEX 79.25Rank 61Record 4-6-0Status provisionalConfidence 73

179Children of the Swamp

Season APEX 230Event APEX 155.5Rank 41Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3255, 10114, 4967

/ 100 compat

Projected

396 pts

~2.0 RP (championship)

Teams: 3255, 10114, 4967

Auto

71.8 18%

Teleop

198.8 50%

Endgame

123.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2704, 2096, 179

/ 100 compat

Projected

328.3 pts

~1.1 RP (championship)

Teams: 2704, 2096, 179

Auto

50.4 16%

Teleop

192.1 60%

Endgame

76.7 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (championship)Red 2.02 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setChampionship

Red projected score396pts

Blue projected score328.3pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample280alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Division play: bonuses harder to earn than at regionals.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 67.8
Score range: 262–462
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 576 vs event baseline 368.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

579.2Season APEX582.6

71.8Auto50.4

198.8Teleop192.1

123.6Endgame76.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	84	76
teleop	192	98
endgame	68	53
foul	0	5
total	344	232

Result

Final score

344 – 232

Prediction correct · off by 74.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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